Ukraine: progress on the peace plan for peace

The United States and Ukraine made important progress in negotiations to end the war, they announced this Monday in Geneva: the 28-point peace plan promoted by President Donald Trump now incorporates “most of the key priorities” of Kyiv, in the words of the Ukrainian delegation.

The progress on the table

“We have made enormous progress and I can tell you that the points that remain pending are not insurmountable. We simply need more time,” said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The new version of the plan stipulates that any future agreement must fully respect Ukrainian sovereignty and contemplates the release of prisoners of war under the “all for all” formula, plus the return of Ukrainian children.

What Moscow accepts

The initial version of the document was welcomed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as it took up several Moscow demands: that Ukraine cede territory, accept a smaller army and give up joining NATO. In exchange, the plan offered Western security guarantees to Kyiv to prevent any new Russian attack.

The deadlines at stake

Trump initially gave Zelensky until November 27 to respond, but later said the plan was not his “final offer.” Rubio hinted at some flexibility with the calendar: “We want this done as quickly as possible. Obviously, we would like it to be Thursday,” he said. The war, triggered by the Russian invasion, has lasted nearly four years.

The practical takeaway

The Ukrainian conflict has global consequences that reach the Caribbean: the energy and grain uncertainty the war generated helped spike global inflation in 2022, and an agreement would reduce that source of volatility. But between the negotiating table and the signature lie the difficult points: territory, guarantees and the calendar. Progress is real, but peace is not yet signed.